Heatstroke Risk Projection in Japan under Current and Near Future Climates

This study assesses heatstroke risk in the near future (2031–2050) under RCP8.5 scenario. The developed model is based on a generalized linear with number of ambulance transport due to (hereafter patients heatstroke) as explained variable and daily maximum temperature or wet bulb globe (WBGT) explanatory variable. With temperature, we performed projection case considering only climate change (Case 1); population dynamics 2); change, dynamics, long-term heat acclimatization 3). In Case 2, will be 2.3 times higher than that baseline period (1981–2000) average nationwide. 2 about 10 % larger 1 nationwide despite decline. increase elderly people from future. However, 20 prefectures, smaller compared 1. Comparing results Cases 3 reveals could reduced by 60 acquiring tolerance changing lifestyles. Notably, given lifestyle changes represented widespread use air conditioners, lower some areas. other words, can an important adaptation emergency. All above were also confirmed prediction WBGT